How To Win In 2016: Debunking The Five Myths That Will Lead to Republican Defeat by Shapiro Ben

Author:Shapiro, Ben [Shapiro, Ben]
Language: eng
Format: azw3
Publisher: Revolution Books
Published: 2015-12-14T05:00:00+00:00

Myth #4: Money Wins Elections

The old chestnut states that money wins elections, and that the Republican candidates most capable of raising a massive warchest will be in the best position to target presumptive 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The logic seems to be that candidates who raise tons of money can afford tons of television ads and a broader grassroots organization. This is why Democrats spend an inordinate amount of time complaining about Republican super PACs and campaign spending, as though the Koch brothers were completely capable of buying elections.

That isn’t necessarily true. According to economist Steve Levitt of the University of Chicago, who analyzed the impact of cash on elections, “When a candidate doubled their spending, holding everything else constant, they only got an extra one percent of the popular vote. It’s the same if you cut your spending in half, you only lose one percent of the popular vote. So we’re talking about really large swings in campaign spending with almost trivial changes in the vote.“

Nonetheless, Republican donors assume that they ought to be the kingmakers when it comes to conservative politics. The notion seems to be that since the top Republican donors are fantastic at making money – and they are – they must be similarly fantastic at dictating candidates to the conservative base. Even conservative media, this donor class argues, screw up the equation, calling as they do for more grassroots involvement in politics. Conservative intelligentsia say that conservative grassroots should sit down and shut up, or that Republican candidates ought to tell them to do so. Matthew Dowd, one of George W. Bush’s strategists, explained to Jackie Calmes of The New York Times, “You have to have national leaders emerge that are willing to have a confrontation, a real confrontation.” Calmes then quoted anonymous Republican sources suggesting just who that “leader” might be: Jeb Bush.

The problem is that Republican cash doesn’t translate into votes – not unless you have people willing to do the grunt work. Karl Rove’s tens of millions in swing state campaign ads may pay some salaries, but they don’t reach anyone who knows how to use a TiVo. And sadly, Republicans don’t even allocate the money they do use wisely. In fact, they spend the cash on Rove types. In 2012, both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama spent in excess of $1 billion on campaigning. Here, according to The Huffington Post, is the breakdown on area of spending:

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